U.S. September Inflation Increases 3.0%, Falling Short of Forecasts, Report Delayed by Shutdown
The U.S. Labor Department released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday, showing that annual inflation rose 3.0% in September. The figure was below the 3.2% increase economists had expected, marking a modest easing in price growth. Publication of the data was delayed by nine days because of the recent government shutdown, which halted the usual schedule for releasing the monthly report.
On a month‑to‑month basis, consumer prices climbed 0.4% in September, a slight deceleration from the 0.5% gain recorded in August. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, advanced 4.1% year over year, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s long‑term target of 2%. The modest slowdown in headline inflation was attributed to lower energy prices and a modest decline in used‑car costs, while housing and medical care costs continued to exert upward pressure.
Inflation has been a central concern for policymakers since mid‑2021, when rates surged to levels not seen in four decades. Over the past year, the CPI has fluctuated between 3.0% and 4.0%, reflecting a mix of supply‑chain disruptions, labor market tightness, and fluctuating commodity prices. September’s result suggests that some of the pandemic‑induced price pressures are easing, but persistent core inflation signals that broader price stability remains elusive.
Federal officials responded cautiously, noting that the data “indicates progress but also underscores the need for vigilance.” Economic analysts echoed this sentiment, highlighting that while the headline figure offers a modest relief, the still‑elevated core rate could keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Market participants are watching upcoming wage‑growth reports and the next CPI release for further clues about the trajectory of price pressures.
Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current policy stance, with decisions on interest‑rate adjustments likely to hinge on whether the downward trend in headline inflation persists and whether core inflation shows a more pronounced decline. Economists project that the CPI for October will be released in early November, providing the next data point for assessing the effectiveness of recent policy measures and the overall health of the economy.
