Morgan Stanley Raises Brent Forecast to $60 as OPEC+ Pauses Production Hikes
Morgan Stanley lifted its short‑term forecast for Brent crude, raising the price target to $60 per barrel after OPEC+ announced a pause in its planned production increases. The Wall Street bank issued the update on Monday, citing the unexpected slowdown in supply growth as a key factor supporting higher prices.
The decision by OPEC+ to temporarily halt the incremental output hikes, which had been scheduled to begin later this year, was taken amid lingering concerns over global demand recovery and the recent volatility in energy markets. Analysts note that the pause reduces the expected oversupply that had been projected for the second half of 2024, thereby creating a more balanced market environment.
Industry observers and market participants have responded cautiously. Energy analysts described the move as a “strategic adjustment” that reflects the group’s effort to align production with demand trends. Meanwhile, traders indicated that the revised forecast could lead to modest upward pressure on Brent prices in the coming weeks, although they warned that geopolitical developments and inventory data will continue to influence price dynamics.
In addition to the price target change, Morgan Stanley highlighted several macro‑economic variables that could affect the oil market, including global GDP growth forecasts, seasonal demand patterns, and the pace of economic reopening in major consuming regions. The bank’s research team emphasized that while the $60 per barrel estimate is a near‑term outlook, longer‑term price trajectories remain contingent on the resolution of supply‑side uncertainties and potential policy shifts.
Looking ahead, market participants will monitor OPEC+ meetings for any further adjustments to the production schedule, as well as inventory reports from major oil‑producing nations. The pause in output hikes, combined with the updated price forecast, suggests a period of relative stability for crude markets, but analysts caution that external shocks could quickly alter the outlook.
